fearon and laitin 2003

Weeks 2_4 (1). Fearon and Laitin 2003_Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil For their empirical evaluation, several active research programs in economics and political science require data on ethnic groups across countries. Fearon and Laitin ask what explains the apparent recent prevalence of violent civil wars. Hostname: page-component-6c5869dcc6-dtw2x Table 3. 8 } The original code for Table 1 in stata is short and I have saved it here: 4 Alternatively they may not, because some regions might be almost entirely inhabited by one ethnic group, but this case is most likely to occur when there is only one large minority (so that fractionalization is limited). If polarization at the local as well as the national level increases the incidence of conflict, then high ethnic fractionalization will also tend to be associated with an increased incidence of local conflicts. For cases where the share exceeds 81%, the correlation between F and P is 0.61, but for cases where the share is less than 81%, the correlation is only 0.09. P = 1 - \sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {4{\pi _i}} {(0.5 - {\pi _i})^2} = 4\sum\limits_{i = 1}^n {\pi _i^2} (1 - {\pi _i}). https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534, Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. .. Note that this case of more than three groups with the two largest groups shares representing less than two-thirds implies a high degree of ethnic fractionalization. This item is part of a JSTOR Collection. Current issues are now on the Chicago Journals website. The data fit particularly well with our analysis given that these categories are also coded taking into consideration the geographical extent of the conflict. countries which have experienced conflicts for longer periods like Sri-Lanka and Ethiopia) and that this is in some way correlated with the distribution of groups. If groups i and j merge, then from equation (2) the change in the polarization index is: This expression is positive if the two groups shares sum to less than two-thirds, but negative if they sum to more than two-thirds. Nejad, Sarem and These results imply that, when ethnic fractionalization is relatively high, local polarization may be considerable even if the NP index is relatively low. Wang, Xueqing Fearon, J.D. The Heckman procedure controls for the sample selection bias (Heckman, Reference Heckman1979) related to the extent of conflict, given that the latter is only observed for countries/groups which experience a conflict. tends to make wars last lon- However her idea that groups concentrated in a historical homeland are more likely to be involved in conflict because of demands for independence seems consistent with our analysis related to the extent of conflict. represents the population share of group i and n is the total number of groups. Practically, the distribution of groups will capture the correlation between distribution of groups and conflict rather than the correlation between distribution of groups and extent of conflict. mtnest. Suggests that motive matters less than opportunity in civil wars; Ethnic diversity as such does not induce civil war; But Theory suggests ethnic diversity produces conflict under specific conditions? In the outcome equation for Model 1, the concentration dummy has a significant negative coefficient, indicating that with greater concentration rebellions are more localized. GDP per Capita and Population: Penn World Table 6.2. 97, No. As a measure of local distribution of the group, we rescale the variable for the regional concentration of groups from the MARGen dataset on a 01 basis. Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition, Diversity, Conflict and Growth: Theory and Evidence, The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory, PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set. FILION (nee Beaulieu), Lorraine (September 20, 1962 - February 21, 2022) - After a long battle with mental illness, Lorraine passed away suddenly and peacefully at home on Monday, February 21, 2022 at the age of 59. Our explanation of such an effect relates to the probability that ethnic fractionalized countries are characterized by pockets of local polarization, which then tend to increase the probability of local and less extensive conflicts. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries. PDF Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Methods - Stanford University Where Do Civil Wars Occur? We analyse two possibilities: (1) where the regional population shares are formed from the national population shares by adding the missing group's share entirely to that of one other group (which is equivalent to the merging of two groups), and (2) where the share of the missing group is redistributed equally amongst all the represented groups. Replication data from the classic Fearon and Laitin (2003) study on the causes of civil wars. Esteban and Ray (Reference Esteban and Ray2011) hypothesize that either fractionalization or polarization can be relevant, depending on circumstances. Alesina et al. Did country experience civil war onset this year? and Is there a link between civil conflicts and ethnicity? The association between high ethnic fractionalization and significant polarization at the regional level explains why conflict is more likely in these cases than would be predicted on the basis of a relatively low level of NP. Today, the Journals Division publishes more than 70 journals and hardcover serials, in a wide range of academic disciplines, including the social sciences, the humanities, education, the biological and medical sciences, and the physical sciences. 1 There are a few studies which focus on linguistic rather than ethnic diversity (i.e., Wimmer and Cederman, Reference Wimmer and Cederman2009) which find either a significant effect of linguistic diversity on conflict or a negative relationship between linguistic polarization and conflict (Gardeazabal, Reference Gardeazabal2011). Conflict Management and Peace Science is a peer-reviewed journal published five times a year. and Fearon and Laitin (Reference Fearon and Laitin2003). Like the above scholars Fearon and Laitin (2003) also find that lower per capita GDP is significantly associated with the onset of a civil war, and this appears to be the most robust finding of the existing literature. By, these crude measures, civil war has been a far greater, scourge than interstate war in this period, though it has, What explains the recent prevalence of violent civil, conflict around the world? 97, No. The relationship between ethnic diversity and conflict is still a matter of debate. Mishra, Sumit Then F = 0.90 and p = 0.36, which is not very high. (Reference Barron, Kaiser and Menno2009) who show a positive relation between local conflicts and ethnic clustering. Models 1 and 2 are identical except that Model 2 includes ethnic polarization in place of ethnic fractionalization.Footnote 2018. 2021. In order to test whether greater regional concentration of minority groups is associated with a higher probability of conflict and whether these conflicts are more likely to be of limited extent, we estimate a two-stage Heckman model where at the selection stage (Panel B) the dependent variable is a minority group's involvement in rebellion, and at the outcome stage (Panel A), the dependent variable is a measure of the scale of the rebellion (1 = political banditry up to local rebellions, 2 = guerrilla activity of any scale, 3 = civil war). In Model 1, the variable for the regional concentration of groups is significant at the 1% level with positive coefficients in the selection equation, indicating that even with a moderate degree of regional concentration rebellion is more frequent. \end{equation}$$, $$\begin{equation} ethnic status differences, ethnicity more salient, more resources at stake, ethnic extremists PDF How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? \Delta P = 4[{({\pi _i} + {\pi _j})^2}(1 - {\pi _i} - {\pi _j}) - \pi _i^2(1 - {\pi _i}) - \pi _j^2(1 - {\pi _j})]\;{\rm{ = 4}}{\pi _{\rm{i}}}{\pi _{\rm{i}}}{\rm{[2 - 3(}}{\pi _{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ + }}{\pi _{\rm{i}}}{\rm{)]}} Table 3 uses MAR data to show that in 83 cases out of 113, the second largest population group is at least 50% concentrated in one administrative region (and in 45 cases the population is more than 75% concentrated in one region).Footnote MIODOWNIK, DAN We argue that the reason why it has proved hard to determine whether negative effects on economic performance and conflict are more strongly associated with polarized rather than fractionalized societies is because the distinction between polarization and fractionalization is only relevant for societies with ethnic diversity above a certain threshold. Ethnic fractionalization vs. ethnic polarization. and Population, lagged one year. Thus, the combination of high ethnic fractionalization and an uneven regional distribution of ethnic groups are likely to result in relatively high polarization levels in at least some regions. 5 If there are only two groups, P is precisely equal to twice F. If there are n groups of equal size, then as n tends to infinity, F tends to one but P tends to zero. However, if high levels of ethnic fractionalization are associated with regional concentration of minorities, as we show below to be typically the case, then many regions may have a very different ethnic composition from the national average, and in particular, they may have much higher levels of ethnic polarization than the national level.Footnote In the second case, it is shown in the Appendix that elimination of group j and redistribution of its share equally among the n remaining groups results in a change of polarization of, where m = n In addition, high levels of ethnic fractionalization at a country level are generally associated with regional concentration of minorities, and as a result, many regions may have a very different ethnic composition from the national average, and in particular, they may have much higher levels of ethnic polarization than the national level. 1 (Feb., 2003), Published by: American Political Science Association, JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide, range of content in a trusted digital archive. In contrast, in the same, period there were roughly 127 civil wars that killed at, least 1,000, 25 of which were ongoing in 1999. Source: MARGen data set. International Security (2004) 28 (4): 5-43. Section 5 explores data from the minorities at Risk Project on the regional concentration of minorities and their participation in rebellious activities. After addressing conceptual and practical obstacles, I present a list of 822 ethnic groups in 160 countries that made up at least 1 . Author and Article Information. \end{equation}$$, $$\begin{equation*} MAR focuses specifically on ethnopolitical groups, non-state communal groups that have political significance in the contemporary world because of their status and political actions. This can occur for several reasons. It say nothing about the overall intra-regional population distribution, and tends to suggest that fractionalization is more important than polarization, because higher fractionalization implies more minorities. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.

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