projected career home runs

Again, these are rough estimates of projecting what an inner-circle, generational talent will do for the rest of his career. If so, drafters are probably underrating the elite options in pursuit of speed and pitching. Lets break down what these numbers would mean. On the other hand, drafters may want some players likely to keep clearing fences regardless of all extenuating factors. Second, heres a worst-case scenario in terms of power output. Can Mike Trout break the all-time home run record? J.J. Watt: Texans Hit 'Absolute Home Run' With DeMeco Ryans Hire The same logic applies to the Alvarez, projected to crush 37 home runs by the often conservative Steamer. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419. Predictions for MLB's 2021 HR leaders The reason for these grim projections is mostly the result of worrying trends in Trouts hitting approach in 2022. If youre unfamiliar with the season-long prop market, most sportsbooks offer an over/under on how many home runs a hitter will have or how many strikeouts a pitcher tallies during the 2022 MLB regular season. Bench (twice), Mike Piazza (twice), Javy Lopez, Roy Campanella and Todd Hundley are the other catchers with at least one 40-homer season. Furthermore, his barrel percentage of 19.7% was a career-high, nearly a whole 2% higher than his next highest season. Trout's win probability added -- the cumulative change in the Angels' win probability before he comes to the plate and afterward -- is the third highest, through 1,000 career . While that would damage his rate stats without a significant improvement to his career 59 wRC+ against lefties, the extra playing time would also put him on a relatively paved path to another 30-homer campaign. The explanation as to why Trout hit so many home runs is easy. Steamer projections, however, predict Trout to have a career-low in both OPS and WAR in 2023. And that guy hit the milestones faster than anyone ever. My guess is when he retires with 650 or so we will look back to this years and maybe next years shortened seasons with a what if. Ultimately, he didnt, hitting just two homers over his final 17 games, but Im expecting first 42 games of 2020 Tatis to show up in a big way in 21. Hes already a surefire Hall of Famer at the age of 29. Ozuna seemed like a sort of sleeping giant in St. Louis, right where Cardinals fans thought he should be in terms of hard-hit rate and exit velocity but shy on outstanding results. Though his overall numbers (.239/.333/.455) paled in comparison to his '19 MVP season (.305/.406/.629), a case can be made that those numbers may have leveled out over the course of a typical 162-game season. And as always, dont wager more than you can afford to lose. MLB Albert Pujols vs. Alex Rodriguez: Who Has Best Shot at Bonds' Home Run Record? I believe! See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. Add in the fact that Trout has maintained his athleticism (his sprint speed is in the 95th percentile this year) and theres reason to believe hes going to age gracefully. The first 5 to reach 40 HR:Shohei Ohtani (Japan)Salvador Perez (Venezuela)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Canada)Marcus Semien (USA)Fernando Tatis Jr. (Dominican Republic)It's the first time that the first 5 players to reach 40 HR in a season were all born in different countries. \n","providerName":"Twitter","providerUrl":"https://twitter.com","type":"oembed","width":550,"contentType":"rich"},{"__typename":"Markdown","content":"Its easy to blame the pandemic-shortened season for limiting their home run opportunities, but theres no guarantee Guerrero, Perez or Ohtani would have hit 30 in a 162-game season last year.\n\nPerez would have had the best chance of getting there, as he blasted 11 dingers in 37 games. But he still has to put up the actual performances, of course. But based on Trouts resume, his interconnectedness to all-time greats, and the potential best and worst-case scenarios for Trout, theres a good bet that hes on track to approach 600+ home runs. Well, sometimes life isnt fair -- because Braves fans got to reap the benefits when the bill for all that hard contact finally came due. Which active MLB players have a chance to hit 600 career home runs? This approach of hitting the ball hard and in the air, however, negatively impacted other aspects of his offensive production. 3 in MLB. If he can maintain that 18.13 figure for the rest of his career, hes in pretty good shape to approach some of those aforementioned home run kings. Giancarlo Stanton (OF/UT NYY): 110.8 ADP Only Mike Trout has hit more home runs (101) than Surez (98) since the start of 2018. Trouts career 173 wRC+ is tied for the third-best in MLB history with Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, and Rogers Hornsby. How many home runs does Shohei Ohtani have? Harpers career barrel percentage is currently at 12.1% but over the last two seasons, Harper has increased that number to 17.3% and 18.1%. The addition of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos should give Harper all the protection he needs and with his increase in barrels projected to stay at their elevated level, Harper is a candidate for a 40 home run season. Once Trout moves off of center field, which could happen soon based on his ugly defensive metrics, there will be less emphasis on his defense and less wear-and-tear. If last summer was an indication, Hernndez has learned how to lay off some of the breaking balls he might never really handle and give himself more chances to mash. He finished with a career-high .250 batting average by hitting .280 with 20 dingers after the All-Star break. Having hit 34 home runs over the last three years combined with a single-season high of 13, Moran typically isnt associated with power. Projections outline Juan Soto's HOF path - MLB.com How much is Shohei Ohtani worth? The injury-prone sluggers 2017 NL MVP campaign with the Marlins -- when he crushed 59 homers, tied with none other than Babe Ruth for ninth most in a single season -- remains somewhat of an aberration, but its also a legitimately realistic ceiling for Stanton if he plays. There hasnt been a huge difference in velocity, or drastic changes to how often he throws any of his pitches (hes coming at you with a four-seam fastball and a slider about 85% of the time) so its hard to really pinpoint what we are going to get here. Per MLB's Sarah Langs, it's the longest home run hit by an Angels player in the Statcast era (since 2015) and, according to MLB's Brent Maguire, it's the longest home run hit at Angel Stadium by anyone during that time. When its all said and done, Trout could make a legitimate run for the all-time home run title. Although the 23-year-old is more likely to recover from concerning knee issues, hes also the most expensive of the grouping. Trout is doing it all: hes drastically cut down his strikeouts, ramping up his walks, and is crushing baseballs harder than ever. Deposit bonus requires 25x play-thru. He needs to play the hitting game as he did when he came up. Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com But when in doubt, trust the numbers and expect regression to happen. 4 pick. According to Baseball Savant, Trouts Whiff% went from the 82nd percentile in 2019 to the 17th percentile in 2022. Trout should be near the top of the leader boards as he winds up his career. Keep an eye on Anthony Volpe (10): Baseball's No. (As of now, Schwarber should still start regularly in left field.) This news could have major fantasy baseball ramifications. Basically, my model looks at individual plate appearance data and builds a projection for every hitter and pitcher across all of MLB. But Trouts 300th home run raises another question: can he break the all-time home run record? Theres no limit to how great Soto can be, because hes only gotten better in each of his three big league seasons. With a 100 OPS+ marking the league . But Mantle, his biggest comparison, did have injuries hamper him. His strikeouts stayed near the same rate, and his BABIP ballooned. Giancarlo Stanton -- DH/OF, Yankees2019 total: 3 / 20 total: 4. While Stanton has only avoided the injured list in two of the last six seasons, the if-healthy gambit is certainly intriguing when getting the 2017 NL MVP in the 10th round or later of a 12-teamer. Olson hit a career-high 39 home runs last year and is now moving from one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks to hitter-friendly. Projections : HOU : 309.0: 3.4 . Early ratings on Craig Cartons FS1 show are not what you want. And the power absolutely translates into home runs. MLB.com enlisted five writers to pick 10 contenders to be 2021s Major League home run king -- with each making a pick in each league. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less. His sprint speed is still elite (95th percentile) but hes just not getting to many baseballs/making plays. However, in 2020, that number fell drastically to 18.4% but he found success. However, his career high over his first eight seasons was 27 homers, set in 2017 and 18, and its fair to wonder if he would have kept up his pace in his first season after missing all of 19 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Barry Bonds (22) 762: 12606: L: HR Log: 2. Aaron Judge 2023 HR Total Projection. Can Mike Trout break the all-time home run record? This pick is a gamble on Stantons health. Analyzing Mike Trout's 2023 Projections - Last Word on Sports At this current juncture, Trout has turned into the best hitter on the planet. Two active, but about to retire, players are in the club. That red flag could have been a reason to flea if his price soared, but Moran remains a bench pick in 15-team leagues despite having a steady starting role in Pittsburgh. Jimnez only seems to be getting better, plus it certainly doesn't hurt that he'll be batting in the middle of one of the most potent lineups in the Majors, likely slotting in right behind reigning AL MVP Jos Abreu. \n\nGuerrero was actually born in Canada during his fathers tenure with the Montreal Expos, making this the first time that the first five players to reach 40 home runs in a season were all born in different countries, per another Stats Perform tweet.","type":"text"},{"__typename":"OEmbed","html":". But his attempt to get under the baseball leaves him more vulnerable to 4-seamers fastballs that stay up in the zone. And, as a result of more swings and misses, Trout saw a career-high strikeout percentage of 28.1% in 2022. 2023 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Satellite Information Network, LLC. ESPN examined the active players who could conceivably reach the milestone, Mike Francesa is hearing rumblings Woody Johnson may sell Jets, Yankees Aaron Judge will get $300 million-plus in free agency, MLB insider says, WFANs Gregg Giannotti also thinks Mets are cursed by Timmy Trumpet, Dodgers Trea Turner wont limit MLB free-agent options, but is East Coast guy, Early ratings on Craig Cartons FS1 show are not what you want. His jumps and range has been terrible. Miggy, Trouts first rival, has aged as bad as pujols. Our Employment Services program provides a whole-person model of care to empower the people we serve to achieve their goals of recovery, self-sufficiency, and financial independence. That would rank seventh all-time (min. What could the rest of that career look like? Nobody is expecting him to sustain 2020s seismic pace and push for 40-plus long balls, but another 30 is well in play for the durable outfielder. The first question to explore, however, is what some of the home run legends did after they reached age 29 (Trouts age). surpassing Brian Downing with his 223rd home run in August of 2000, highest WAR (71.7) of any player in MLB history, LA Angels Tuesday News Crash: Minor League Contraction. Embed from Getty Imageswindow.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'puMsJ7NmSMdmIMm_OaTBow',sig:'vezSp4UAyCYx0CNKbN-Y2kGKjCcYDTqLPLPhBtQJo7I=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1243712875',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })}); Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, Brandon Drury, Hunter Renfroe, Shohei Ohtani. But its as if time doesnt apply when it comes to Cruz -- in fact, he seems to get better with age. Added on to his 2019 total of 108, thats eleven 100-walk seasons in his career through age 36. Our current job openings provide the opportunity . Oh and did I mention that Muncy will be hitting in the middle of the best offense in baseball? Gausman is now pitching in the AL East but the NL West wasnt exactly easy last year so he should be used to the competition. His .630 slugging percentage is a near career-high, only falling short of his 2019 MVP season. Lets try to run the math on this. Trouts 24.6-degree average launch angle is the highest of his career. Yes no one of Trouts caliber had that fall. Heck, only eight hitters went over this number in the infamous juiced-ball season of 2019. These studs, sleepers, and bargains are all strong targets at reasonable going rates. Below are some notables in our projected career home runs top 100, click here to view the full list. Yes, he hit 48 last season and yes hes fantastic but 43.5 is a lot of home runs. Snagging either Cruz or Martinez near their ADPs is a massive haul. Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. He averaged 40 homers a year from 2014 to 2019, with 37 representing his lowest tally from those six seasons (and a movie). How Mike Trout stacks up to MLB's greats over his first 1,000 games Giancarlo Stanton, Projected 684 Career Home Runs 6. Trout will not be immune to the aging process but, as the first table in this article showed, the inner-circle greats tend to age very well compared to their counterparts. Projected Career Home Runs | Hinksball Only five players through their age-21 seasons had a higher OPS+ than he has (min. If anything, Gausman was lucky in the first half and then the baseball gods evened things out in the second half. Joc Pederson (1B/OF CHC): 338.3 ADP 3,000 PA), behind some monstrous bats. But with a more well-rounded lineup after the addition of Gio Urshela, Brandon Drury, and Hunter Renfroe, it will be interesting to see if Trout continues his power-focused approach or returns to a more well-rounded mix. Its time for our longtime favorite to do what hes seemingly been built to do: mash. While Trouts ability to hit the fastball suffered the most in this new approach, his swing and miss on off-speed pitches suffered as well. Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio. Trout was already the arguable best hitter in baseball heading into 2017 but there is no question about it now. that Trout would fall to me at No. He didnt make it to 700. Bill James invented Career Assessments as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. Projections : NYY : 632.5: 4.1 . Can Trout be the All Time Career HR KIng? Shohei Ohtani has a .297 average this season and a .271 average over his career. (Phillip Ervin and Jake Marisnick could yank away some opportunities.) Follow the money: MLB player salaries and payrolls for every major league team. Colin Moran (1B/3B PIT): 388.7 ADP He could retire today and find himself in Cooperstown a half-decade from now. Guerrero and Tatis could make more history by the end of this season if they lead their respective league in home runs. Glad you asked. Or if Angel stadium gets replaced. The power (and speed) upside remains immense. Teoscar Hernndez -- OF, Blue Jays2019 total: 26 / 20 total: 16. He admitted it himself. Hank Aarons greatest five year stretch as a hitter started when he was 35. He increased his average launch angle, average exit velocity, and Barrel percentage in that time frame as well. Variance is a real thing in baseball and 40 home runs would be incredibly impressive for a hitter who just turned 23 in March. Career Leaders & Records for Home Runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. future projections - MLB.com 2022's potential home run leaders. Freeman hit 31 homers last season and was one of the more unlucky hitters in baseball as his wOBA was just .379 but his xwOBA came in at .416. 2022 MLB Home Run leader predictions - MLB.com When pitchers do not want to pitch to the player he shpold be will those same pitchers that will challenge him now be afraid and stay away from the plate. Even with lower on-base numbers, Steamers projection feels overly pessimistic. On-base percentage and walksBy the end of the 2035 season, Sotos .428 career on-base percentage would be tied for 10th based on todays numbers (min. The Major League Baseball season is right around the corner and most of the attention in preseason baseball betting goes to World Series futures and win totals. Get award-winning advice with our fantasy baseball tools Gambling problem? That will play in deeper leagues for drafters who have ascertained speed before filling their middle-infield spot. which allows you to combine rankings from 100+ experts into one cheat sheet . In 2022, he recorded a 16-run value on the pitch with a 53.3% hard-hit rate. Rodon stormed onto the scene last year as one of the best pitchers in baseball out of nowhere considering he hasnt thrown over 35 innings in a season since 2018. The only players with at least six straight 40-homer seasons in their careers are Ruth, Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez. The blast, his 30th homer of the year and 15th in the month of June alone, is the longest home run hit in MLB this season and the longest of his career. However, the power kept coming last year. Slugging percentage, home runs and RBIs Feast your eyes on Soto's .593 career slugging percentage through age 36. Membership all but guarantees induction into the Hall of Fame (with the exception of those known or suspected to have used performance-enhancing drugs). Julio Rodriguez, 6.0T4. Soto is projected for 11 straight seasons with a 150 or better OPS+, with that streak ending only because of a projected 148 OPS+ in 2032. Is Cody Bellinger destined to be a Yankee? The value my model has on this under might scare some people away but in the betting markets, players who are overvalued and undervalued are the ones that you should target and my model thinks the market is getting a little ahead of itself in regards to Guerrero. What comes nextProjections are great, and in Sotos case here, theyre eye-opening. Follow the Cubs lead and snag Pederson at a cheaper rate. It didnt feel good leaving the hands, said Diamondbacks pitcher Tommy Henry. Heres your list of Hall-of-Fame-caliber players for this stat, ones with at least nine straight six-WAR seasons: Bonds, Aaron, Honus Wagner, Gehrig, Mantle and Mays. NO as it is highly unlikely that even with the Manfred signature ball being used that Bonds Steroid honored record will ever be broke. Of course wed all love to see it. The lefty hitting phenom is coming off a ridiculous slash line of .351/.490/.695 -- for an MLB-best 1.185 OPS -- with 13 home runs in 47 games. Average Draft Position (ADP) referenced isFantasyProsconsensusADP. Could he? I had my 10 yr old kid read it last night as he was asking this same question a couple of weeks back. Trouts contract runs through 2031, giving him 12 potential full seasons to accumulate plate appearances. Again, Freeman is one of the best hitters in baseball and is in the middle of the best lineup in baseball. Because the career .261 hitter batted .202 last year, hes getting drafted after shiny new toys Randy Arozarena, Trent Grisham, and Teoscar Hernandez. All of the above is factored into Soto's projected 163 career OPS+ and 91.1 WAR, per FanGraphs, through 2035. Dodgers Trea Turner wont limit MLB free-agent options, but is East Coast guy Schwarber fell short of the Mendoza Line (.188) last season, but that didnt stop him from collecting 11 homers. July 30, 2022 / 4:41 PM / AP. Trouts career high in home runs was 45 in 2019, the last time we saw a season of more than 60 games, when he played only 134 games due to injury. Bill James Baseball Abstract - MLB Career Stat Projection Tool - ESPN ","type":"text"},{"__typename":"Video","contentDate":"2021-09-22T04:25:53.285Z","preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({\"preferredPlaybacks\":\"mp4AvcPlayback\"})":"https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2021/2021-09/21/527136f9-2a4f80e0-e52551e5-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4","type":"video","description":"Shohei Ohtani obliterates his 45th home run to right field off of Cristian Javier, a solo homer that trims the Astros' lead to 10-5","displayAsVideoGif":false,"duration":"00:00:53","slug":"shohei-ohtani-homers-45-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field","tags":[{"__typename":"InternalTag","slug":"season-2021","title":"Season 2021","type":"season"},{"__typename":"GameTag"},{"__typename":"PersonTag","slug":"playerid-660271","title":"Shohei Ohtani","person":{"__ref":"Person:660271"},"type":"player"},{"__typename":"TeamTag","slug":"teamid-108","title":"Los Angeles Angels","team":{"__ref":"Team:108"},"type":"team"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"hitting","title":"hitting","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"highlight","title":"highlight","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"in-game-highlight","title":"in-game highlight","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"home-run","title":"home run","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"imagen-feed","title":"Imagen feed","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"eclat-feed","title":"Eclat feed","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"international-feed","title":"International Partner feed","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"yahoo-fantasy","title":"Yahoo Fantasy","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"1-yahoo-fantasy-feed","title":"1-Yahoo Fantasy Feed","type":"taxonomy"},{"__typename":"TaxonomyTag","slug":"wow","title":"wow","type":"taxonomy"}],"thumbnail":{"__typename":"Thumbnail","templateUrl":"https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/private/{formatInstructions}/mlb/lum61cuqwsoikdoe3fnv"},"title":"Shohei Ohtani's 45th home run","relativeSiteUrl":"/video/shohei-ohtani-homers-45-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field"},{"__typename":"Markdown","content":"**2) It's a global group**\n\nBaseball is a global game, and MLBs diversity is reflected in the home run leaderboard. Therefore a higher barrel percentage means that Trout hit the ball both harder and higher in 2022. Analyzing Mike Trout's Projections Mike Trout and the Home Run Formula The explanation as to why Trout hit so many home runs is easy. The only players with more than 1,762 walks in their careers are Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Ruth, Williams, Joe Morgan and Carl Yastrzemski. Olson hit a career-high 39 home runs last year and is now moving from one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks to hitter-friendly. Sign up to receive our daily Morning Lineup to stay in the know about the latest trending topics around Major League Baseball. But again, this is more of a bet on his health than a bet on his skill. According to oddsmakers, Judge will hit far fewer home runs in 2023 than his 62 in 2022. Heres two more goodies that sealed the deal on Ozuna for me: Statcast classified 81% of his 2020 homers as no-doubters (estimated to be a dinger at all 30 MLB ballparks) -- which makes sense, given that Ozuna was far and away MLBs king in average home run distance (theres my AL pick, Hernndez, in second place). The results? I think youve laid out some very great cases either way. You don't currently have any notifications. Through Sept. 6, Tatis 42nd game of the year, he was tied for the Major League lead in homers with Mike Trout, with 15 apiece. Admittedly, this is the bet that I subjectively hate but the numbers are what they are and sticking with them is the process that I have to follow. For reference, Mike Trout has 5440 plate appearances to date so hell likely need to both replicate and surpass that total in the latter part of his career. I was really hoping (somewhat foolishly perhaps?) Current age (as of June 30th of previous year). Careers at Project HOME | Project HOME The fanbase, players, staff, and even fans from opposing teams all want . Well, the hope is Stanton no longer has to literally stay on the field, now that hes primarily a designated hitter. In terms of Statcast stats that indicate crushing the ball -- you name it, Tatis likely led the world in it in 2020. Hes slugged over .450 in all but one of those six seasons, including last years .278/.324/.475 slash line with Detroit. With worrying trends and a projection of a career-worst offensive year, is it finally time to start worrying about Mike Trout? Note: This prediction was made before Jimnez suffered an injury on March 24 that will keep him out for the bulk of the season. Hell need great consistency and even greater longevity. Definitely. What do we get this year? Schwarbers decision to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies put him in one of the friendliest home run parks for left-handed hitters. Last year, though, it skyrocketed to 29.1% and he found even more success (which isnt shocking). 2, but with the perennial MVP candidate off the board, Ill happily take Jimnez in this spot. Ohtani is just the fourth American League player to hit 15 home runs in the month of June. Only Ruth, Bonds and Williams have accumulated at least 10 qualified seasons with a .600 SLG, and nobody has ever had nine straight. Then, in 20, he hit 22 in 56 games to lead the Majors. In 2019, Wheeler struck out 23.6% of hitters which was right around his career norm to that point. While Cordero could quickly find himself in a platoon with Hunter Renfroe if he doesnt perform, he should receive one more chance to validate the annual hype. 600 feels like a more conservative measure. Mike Trout is incredible. It seems hitters were starting to adjust and my models projected K% of about 25% reflects that. The only qualified hitters to be walked more frequently since the start of 2018 are Trout and Bryce Harper. Ohtani, meanwhile, spent most of the year as a DH-only player after a forearm strain ended his pitching season after two starts, but he only managed seven long balls in 44 games while slashing .190/.291/.366. Guerrero finished with nine homers over 60 games last year, bringing his career total to 24 through 183 games. Zachary D. Rymer May 25, 2012 Major League Baseball's career home run record is without a doubt the. Since 2017, there is an enormous gap between Trouts MLB-best 183 wRC+ and Aaron Judges second-best 159 wRC+. Hell we are thinking this now with Pujols. Indeed, Soto is projected for 1,996 RBIs through 2035. Franchy Cordero (OF BOS): 398.0 ADP I ultimately settled on Bellinger, who is primed for a bounceback season after posting a .789 OPS in the pandemic-altered 2020 season. In 2017, Cordero batted .326 with 17 homers and 15 steals in 93 Triple-A games. He clubbed 31 homers in just 122 games as a rookie in 2019, then maintained that pace with 14 home runs in only 55 games (while increasing his OPS from .828 to .891) in the shortened '20 season. Yankees Aaron Judge will get $300 million-plus in free agency, MLB insider says Players to Target for Home Runs (2021 Fantasy Baseball) Whats crazy to think about is that Cruz has smashed 417 career homers and only led his league once, with 40 in 2014, his lone season with the Orioles. Adley Rutchman, 5.9T6. The Blue Jays crowded outfield mix gives me a moment of pause, but at least FanGraphs ZiPS projections back me up. MLB 2023 projected stat leaders Included in this chart is everyone who either currently has 200 homers or at least a 1% projected chance at 500 homers; an empty space in the chart represents a less than 1% chance at the. There are 11 Modern Era players with at least 3,000 career plate appearances and a OPS+ of 163 or higher: Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Trout, Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Cobb, Mark McGwire and Foxx.

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